The effects of a graduated driver licensing program
Date: 2015-06-17
The full report in PDF format is available at the Ministry's web site. What follows is a summary of information distributed to stakeholders who were involved in the development and administration of the licensing and training system.
For the driver training community the most remarkable aspect of the report is that trained drivers (that is, novices who took an approved driving course and obtained a certificate) had more crashes than untrained drivers, and that the difference was a significant 44%.
Details of Ontario's graduated licensing system.
Press Release
(May 15, 1998) Ontario's graduated driver licensing system has dramatically reduced novice driver collisions, according to a Ministry of Transportation interim report on the system that has just been completed.
The report shows that overall collisions by novice drivers are down by 31% and that the fatality rate for new drivers is down 24%. "These numbers tell the story that graduated licensing is saving lives and that graduated licensing is an important component of road safety in the province," stated provincial Minister of transportation Tony Clement.
Ontario adopted a three-phase graduated licensing system in April, 1994. The interim report looked at records for the more than 233,000 people who became novice drivers in 1993 and the more than 235,000 who became novice drivers in 1995. Data was tracked from 1993 to 1996.
While all age groups saw considerable improvement in collision rates, the greatest improvement, a 42% decrease, was observed for the 20-24 age group. Collision rates by Gender also saw the greatest improvement in the 20-24 age group: a 38% decrease for males, and a 49% decrease for female novice drivers.
Male and female novice driver fatal/injury collision rates dropped 19 and 34% respectively, with the largest improvement observed for females age 16-44 (a 37-40% decline).
Fatal collision rates for the 16-19 year age group, prior to the implementation of the Graduated Licensing system, were three times that of the general population. Traffic collisions were the leading killer of drivers aged 16-24 years.
As for the driving population as a whole, the recent results of the 1996 Ontario Road Safety annual report shows that traffic deaths are at a 46-year low. The number of fatalities on Ontario's roads decreased by 7% in 1996-to 929, down from 999 the previous year.
The Number of injuries on Ontario roads dropped from 89,000 in 1995 to 88,445 in 1996-a decrease of 1.3%. Collisions were down 2%, from 219,085 in 1995 to 215, 024 in 1996.
The number of people killed by drinking drives dropped to 232 from 317, a 27% decline. However, drinking and driving still accounts for 25% of the people killed on Ontario's roads. Of the 929 people killed in 1996, 459 were drivers, 270 passengers, 144 pedestrians, 29 motorcyclists and 20 cyclists.
THE STUDY
The study compares collision rates of all 1993 and 1995 novice drivers, excluding 1994 because it was a transition year. The study provides a meaningful and accurate evaluation of the program's effectiveness given that we are looking at the total novice driver populations for 1993 (a pre-graduated licensing system year) and 1995 (a post graduated licensing year).
Overall results of the Interim Evaluation
- The decrease in the fatal collision rate for 16-yr-old drivers is dramatic - dropping from 6.6 deaths per 10,000 licensed drivers in 1993 to 1.8 in 1995.
- Collision rates for all novice drivers dropped 31 per cent. By contrast, only a four per cent drop was observed for the general driving population over the same period.
- The greatest improvement (a 42 per cent reduction) has been observed for novice drivers aged 20-24
- Male and female novice driver fatal/injury collision rates dropped 19 and 34 per cent respectively
Prior to the graduated licensing system, 16-year-old drivers have had fatal and overall collision rates that were on average about three times higher than the general driving public. Since the implementation of the GLS in 1994, the fatal collision rate for 16-yr-old drivers is comparable to that of the general public. Since 1995, the overall collision rate for 16-year-old drivers is lower than that of the general driving population.
Collision rates by age for Graduated Licensing System Interim Evaluation
Largest overall decline observed in the 20-24 age group; large overall decline observed for both genders in 16-44
Fatal/injury collision rates saw an overall decrease of 24 per cent, with the greatest improvement observed for the 16-44, age group. For example, in the 16-19-yr. old age group there was a 27 per cent decrease, the decrease was 25 per cent in the 20-24-year old age group. In the 25-34-yr. old group the decrease was 28 per cent and the decrease was 25 per cent in the 35-44 age group.
The greatest improvement was for both male and female novices aged 20-24. In this age group the male and female rates decreased 38 and 49 per cent respectively
Fatal injury rates for Graduated Licensing System Interim Evaluation
Male and female novice driver fatal/injury- collision rates dropped 19 and 34 per cent respectively
Largest improvements (a 37 to 40 per cent decline) observed for females aged 16-44
Substantial improvement also observed for males aged 16-44 ranging from a 12 to 22 per cent decline in fatal/injury collision involvement rates.
Has the four-month time reduction for formal driver education proven beneficial?
At first glance it appears not. Novice drivers who took driver education courses appear to have more collisions than those who do not. MTO will explore the accuracy and possible reasons for this by conducting, a thorough study of the amount and type of driving done at both the GI and G2 level by drivers who take education and those who do not.
Other benefits
From Ontario government standpoint the Graduated Licensing System has meant.
- 900 fewer visits to hospital emergency rooms
- 2000 fewer days in the hospital for collision victims
- 800 fewer ambulance calls
- 13,000 fewer hours of police time required to -investigate collisions
The reduction in emergency room visits, hospital days, ambulance calls, police time and property damage to motor vehicles can be valued at about $34 million.
Results of the 1996 Ontario Road Safety Annual Report?
1. Fatalities
The number of fatalities on Ontario's roads decreased by seven per cent in 1996 - to 929, down from 999 the previous year. This represents a 46-year low in the number of deaths on our roads,
2. Injuries and collisions
The number of injuries on Ontario roads dropped from 89,572 in 1995 to 88,445 in 1996 - a decrease of 1.3 per cent. Collisions were down two per cent, from 219,085 in 1995 to 215,024 in 1996.
3. Drinking drivers
The number of people killed by drinking drivers dropped to 232 from 317, a 27 per cent decline. However, drinking and driving still accounts for 25 per cent of the people killed on Ontario's roads.
Of all drivers in collisions, 46 per cent were driving properly. Failure to yield right of way, following too closely, losing control and speeding continue to be the most reported driver errors in all types of collisions, In 1996, speeding was most often cited as the cause of fatal collisions. Of the 929 people killed in 1996, 459 were drivers, 270 were passengers, 144 were pedestrians, 29 were motorcyclists and 20 were cyclists.
FOLLOW-UP
The study so far has tracked all 1993 novice drivers for
1993 and 1994 collisions.
It has also tracked all 1995 novice drivers for 1995 and 1996
collisions
Subsequent evaluation will track the 1993 group for 1995 and 1996 collisions and the 1995 group for 1997 and 1998 collisions in order to evaluate the effects of experience.
The follow-up study will also attempt to determine why trained drivers had more collisions by looking at the driving experiences of untrained and trained drivers.
STATISTICS
COLLISION RATES PER 10,000 LICENSED DRIVERS
� |
1993 |
1995 |
% change |
| �All novice drivers | 142 |
792 |
-31% |
| �Novice male drivers | �1424 | 1018 |
-29% |
| �Novice female drivers | �853 | 550 |
-36% |
� |
|||
All drivers |
573 |
548 |
-4% |
Male drivers |
732 |
713 |
-3% |
Female drivers |
380 |
358 |
-6% |
COMPARISON BY COLLISION TYPE
� |
1993 Novices |
1995 Novices |
% change |
fatal |
54 |
51 |
-6% |
| �Injury | 7,144 |
5,438 |
-24% |
| �PDO | 19,492 |
13,122 |
-33% |
TOTAL |
26,690 |
18,611 |
-30% |
COMPARATIVE COLLISION RATES BY AGE
� |
1993 novice drivers. |
1995 novice drivers |
%change |
16-19 |
1362 |
939 |
-31% |
20-24 |
1126 |
657 |
-42% |
25-34 |
948 |
589 |
-38% |
35-44 |
822 |
521 |
-37% |
45-54 |
674 |
515 |
-24% |
55 and over |
516 |
417 |
-19% |
Overall |
1142 |
792 |
-31% |
COMPARATIVE FATAL/INJURY COLLISION RATES
� |
1993 novice drivers. |
1995 novice drivers |
%change |
16-19 |
369 |
268 |
-27% |
20-24 |
302 |
226 |
-25% |
25-34 |
257 |
185 |
-28% |
35-44 |
214 |
160 |
-25% |
45-54 |
187 |
146 |
-22% |
55 and over |
124 |
113 |
-9% |
Overall |
308 |
233 |
-24% |
Greatest improvement was for 16-44 age group
Rate actually increased for females aged 55 and over-reason unclear
16-year-old drivers-FATAL COLLISION INVOLVEMENT
Year |
1988 |
1989 |
1990 |
1991 |
1992 |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
|
16 year |
7.7 |
7.8 |
5.4 |
6.1 |
5.8 |
6.6 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
|
Other |
�2.9 | 3.0 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
|
16 year old drivers-OVERALL COLLISION INVOLVEMENT
Year |
1988 |
1989 |
1990 |
1991 |
1992 |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
|
16 year |
�1,655 | 1,619 |
1,411 |
1,311 |
1,418 |
1,227 |
799 |
254 |
203 |
|
Other |
536 |
560 |
481 |
460 |
478 |
480 |
453 |
431 |
411 |
|
COMPARATIVE COLLISION RATES
COLLISION RATE PER 10,000 LICENSED DRIVERS
� |
1993 novice drivers |
1995 G2 drivers |
% change |
16-19 |
1362 |
1079 |
-21% |
20 - 24 |
1126 |
867 |
-23% |
25-34 |
948 |
719 |
-24% |
35-44 |
822 |
645 |
-22% |
45-54 |
674 |
630 |
-7% |
55 and over |
516 |
612 |
+19% |
| overall |
1142 |
962 |
-16% |
G2 Drivers were compared with fully-licensed novices in 1993 because we wanted to see if improvement is due solely to reduced exposure associated with G1 restrictions.
The decrease of 16% observed for G2 drives overall indicates reduced exposure not the only factor accounting for improvement.
EVALUATION OF RESTRICTIONS
Alcohol restrictions
COLLISION RATE PER 10,000 LICENSED DRIVERS
� |
1993 novice drivers. |
1995 novice drivers |
%change |
16-19 |
23 |
19 |
-19% |
20-24 |
43 |
31 |
-28% |
25-34 |
31 |
23 |
-26% |
35 + |
23 |
15 |
-36% |
Overall |
27 |
20 |
-27% |
G1 and G2 drivers must have a zero BAC
Legal limit of .08 BAC applies to novices
27% decrease in incidence of collisions involving alcohol use for G1 and G2
novices combined
Nighttime driving restrictions
COLLISION RATE PER 10,000 LICENSED DRIVERS
� |
1993 novice drivers. |
1995 novice drivers |
%change |
16-19 |
103 |
53 |
-48% |
20-24 |
113 |
17 |
-85% |
25-34 |
70 |
19 |
-73% |
35 + |
27 |
1 |
-97% |
Overall |
85 |
32 |
-62% |
G1 drivers have a midnight to 5 a.m. curfew
1993 novice drivers could drive at any time
G1 drivers have a midnight to 5 a.m. collision rate the is 62% lower
Freeway driving restrictions
COLLISION RATE PER 10,000 LICENSED DRIVERS
� |
1993 novice drivers. |
1995 novice drivers |
%change |
16-19 |
48 |
38 |
-22% |
20-24 |
96 |
4 |
-96% |
25-34 |
84 |
20 |
-76% |
35 + |
61 |
10 |
-84% |
Overall |
64 |
25 |
-61% |
G1 drivers may not drive on freeways
1993 novice drivers could drive on any road
G1 drivers have a collision rate on freeways that is 61% lower.
COMPARISON WITH THE NEW ZEALAND SYSTEM
(The New Zealand graduated driver licensing system was the first comprehensive system. It started in 1987. )
The Ontario research design is more comprehensive and the results are more current. New Zealand estimates that the incidence of injuries amongst novice drives has been reduced by a minimum of 7% as a result of graduated licensing. The Ontario study has found that novice driver injury collisions were reduced by 25%
DRIVER EDUCATION EFFECTIVENESS
Age |
G2 |
G2 |
% change |
16-19 |
811 |
1173 |
+45% |
20-24 |
844 |
906 |
+7% |
25-34 |
715 |
728 |
+2% |
35+ |
647 |
618 |
-4% |
Overall |
761 |
1095 |
+44% |
Under GDLS a driver may shorten the one-year period in level one to 8 months
by completing an approved course and passing a basic on-road exam
In the 16-19 year old age group those with certificates for completing an approved driving course had a collision rate that was 45% higher.
Differences in the other age categories are negligible.
There are many possible explanations for the poor collision performance of trained drivers and further study will be conducted.
Ontario Ministry of transportation media contacts:
Dan Schultz, Minister's office, (416) 327-9200
Kathy McDermott, Corporate Policy and Communications, (416) 235-4755
Ministry of Transportation of Ontario Web site. http://www.mto.gov.on.ca
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